President of France, Emmanuel Macron, said during the meeting with the presidents and prime ministers of WB countries, that enlargement wasn’t a priority. Stability of the Balkans should rather be in the focus now. This isn’t the first time that Mr Macron is conveying such message for the candidate countries.
With one such message, 2025 as the year of entering the family of European states, seems so far and so unreal.
Well-known journalist from Belgrade and analyst of global trends, Boško Jakšić, says that 2025, from this point of perspective, seems like an illusion.
“If we ask ourselves if leaders in Berlin or Paris could offer some credible and real perspective of the EU accession, we’ll see that it’s not easy at all, considering the two processes. First – French opposition to almost any tape of enlargement, and second, the growing general opposition to the enlargement that could be the outcome of the elections for the European Parliament”, says Mr Jakšić.
What the Commissionaire Johannes Hahn has said about the acceleration of the process seems so unreal to Mr Jakšić.
“Especially as far as Serbia is concerned. Montenegro does have certain advantage, but it could also happen that Montenegro is a collateral damage. And I’m afraid that 2025 as year of accession sounds like an illusion”, says Mr Jakšić.
Conflicts in the region
One of the main factors that affects the enlargement are the unsettled conflicts in the region. Kosovo – Serbia relations primarily.
“Degree of the reform of regional societies, that are still very far from being democratic societies, some more, others less so. The region is not deprived of the nationalism completely and of the tendency towards the authoritarianism. I think no candidate country can say it’s a legal country in its entirety. All this summed up creates a very pessimistic picture”, says Mr Jakšić.
The message from Berlin was loud and clear, he says.
“The Merkel and Macron duo has shown that they are taking the initiative and made it clear that it’s up to the EU to solve the problems of WB. They want to suppress America and Russia”, says Mr Jakšić.
A mistake
Political analyst from Zagreb, Davor Đenero, seems to be a little more optimistic when it comes to the integration process. He says that the EU, i.e. its German-French flywheel, is making a terrible mistake to identify the relations in Balkans with the relations between Belgrade and Priština only.
“Analysts of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitunga are right about being skeptical about the current administration in Belgrade and its possibility to leads Serbia into the EU. It’s true that it’s impossible to make progress in the accession while taking views that are in contravention to the joint European foreign and security policy. Why don’t we take slightly different approach? There are brighter and more successful stories in the Balkans. Like the one regarding North Macedonia and the Macedonian political body as a whole”, says Mr Đenero.
“Montenegro has made two important steps and thus completely harmonized its foreign policy with the joint European policy”, thinks Mr Đenero.
What should Montenegro do?
Đenero recalls that Croatia found itself in a very similar situation during the term of office of Ivica Račan. Croatian diplomats were asking their counterparts from friendly European states – what are we supposed to do, shall we submit the request for membership and initiate the accession procedure even though we are constantly being told that there won’t be further enlargement.
“The diplomats were all saying the same: do your job, do not pay much attention to European rhetoric and you will eventually make European Council and European Commission to take your requests into consideration. And that’s how it was”, says Mr Đenero.
Vital interest of Croatia is to move at least slightly the borders of the EU from its own borders.
“That’s why it’s very important for Zagreb that Podgorica wraps up its European journey. And it wants Bosnia and Herzegovina to begin it as soon as possible. Zagreb isn’t obstructing Serbia, not at all, but their journey is connected to huge problems and unsettled issues. With traditional Montenegrin-Italian politics and reinforcement of Mediterranean relations with Greece, Cyprus and Malta, Montenegro can have the endorsement of the powerful block from Brussels. In cooperation with North Macedonia, it can be even more successful and more convincing”, says Mr Đenero.
