The Russian news federal agency, REGNUM, published an analysis of the pilitical situation in Serbia, primarily focusing on its relation with Russia.
-Here’s the Anna Smirnova’s full article from REGNUM-
The parliamentary elections in Serbia were to be held on April 26, but because of the coronavirus epidemic, they were postponed to June 21. Meanwhile, all the precautions that were in place during the state of emergency were canceled, although it is not clear what the consequences of this decision will be for human health and whether it will lead to an increase in the number of cases.
In late May, the President of Serbia and the head of the Serbian Progressive Party, Aleksandar Vučić, trying to balance between east and west, announced that he would meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 17 or 18. Since the electorate in Serbia is pro-Russian, it is especially important for all those participating in the elections (including Vučić) to receive support from Russia on the eve of the elections. However, the announced meeting of the two presidents in Moscow will not take place. Instead, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Serbia on June 18, where he will meet not only with Vučić, but also with his Serbian counterpart Ivica Dačić, leader of the Socialist Party of Serbia.
The topic of the meeting will be Serbian-Russian relations, which, despite frequent meetings of officials, are in a certain crisis. Vučić’s last visit to Russia, when he met Putin in Sochi, was not in a very good atmosphere. Shortly before the meeting in Belgrade, a “spy scandal” allegedly involving a Russian military diplomat broke out. The whole incident seemed to be a prepared scenario, the purpose of which was to compromise Russia. The President of Serbia, in response to the appearance of the video “capturing espionage”, convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Council, which added importance and seriousness to this matter. Addressing the public, he expressed concern about the actions of Russia.
This was not the first and not the only case when Russia was accused of negative influence in the Serbian media.
Blic daily, which is close to the regime of the Serbian Progressive Party, has been conducting a kind of anti-Russian campaign for several months now. Recently, the journalists of Politika, one of the most famous newspapers in Serbia, behaved unprofessionally towards the Ambassador of Russia, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko. On Victory Day, May 9, an interview was published on the front page of Politika with a heading that did not correspond to the content of the text. The Russian ambassador said that Russia is committed to solving the Kosovo problem in accordance with UNSCR 1244, and the headline said the opposite: Russia favors amending this resolution. Although diplomatic actions of Russia followed and the “Politics” was required to publish a refutation of the information, the same scenario was repeated
The misunderstanding between Belgrade and Moscow is caused by a divergence of views on the solution of the Kosovo problem. Russia is clearly committed to compliance with international law, Resolution 1244, the Constitution of Serbia and the will of the majority of Serbian citizens. According to the Constitution, the President of Serbia is obliged to represent the same interests, but he is increasingly demonstrating pragmatism that goes beyond formal restrictions. Negotiations on Kosovo and Metohija are currently being conducted in an uncertain format with the direct participation of the United States. Although Russian officials have repeatedly stated their readiness to join the negotiations, subject to receiving an invitation from Serbia, no reaction to this was followed.
In addition, Vučić has been trying for a long time to convince the Russian Federation of the positive aspects of a comprehensive solution to the Kosovo problem, which includes the demarcation of Serbia with its southern province. Such a plan would also require the amendment of Resolution 1244, since the purpose of the agreement is for Kosovo to become fully independent, including membership in the UN. It seems that Russia is not ready to support such an idea.
Over the past three years, eighteen countries have withdrawn Kosovo’s recognition, and currently this separatist establishment is recognized by 92 countries out of 193 UN members. Despite this, before the start of a new cycle of negotiations with Pristina, the President of Serbia promised to end the lobbying campaign to revoke recognition of Kosovo. On the other hand, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić expressed a contradictory position, saying that Serbia would not stop this campaign.
PUTIN’S TRUST IN VUČIĆ DECLINES
The opposing views of Vučić and Dačić show that there is no consensus in the ruling coalition on a final solution to the Kosovo problem. Moreover, in recent years, other differences of opinion between partners in power have been increasingly visible.
The other day in the Serbian media there was a discussion between Vučić and Dacić regarding future relations in the ruling coalition and the possible termination of cooperation between them. In light of what is happening, and also given the deterioration of Serbian-Russian relations over the past few months, Lavrov’s visit to Belgrade and his meeting with Dačić may be a signal that the Kremlin is unhappy with the Serbian president’s attitude towards Moscow. This may also be the reason for the refusal of the meeting between Vučić and Putin, previously planned for this time in Moscow.
No doubt that the behavior of the Russian leadership towards him during the Victory Day parade on June 24, at which his presence is expected, will also serve as an important indicator of the Kremlin’s attitude to the president of Serbia. Judging by the behavior on the eve of the elections, we can say that Putin’s confidence in Vučić continues to decline. Moscow has less confidence in Serbian tears.
Over the past three years, eighteen countries have withdrawn Kosovo’s recognition, and currently this separatist establishment is recognized by 92 countries out of 193 UN members.
Despite this, before the start of a new cycle of negotiations with Pristina, the President of Serbia promised to end the lobbying campaign to revoke recognition of Kosovo
